Samos: a community-driven open-access prediction market system


Prediction markets are a type of futures market in which users trade shares that pay off if the event to which they are connected occurs. They are used to aggregate knowledge on a large scale, as the prices of the various contracts can be interpreted as probabilities of their events. Since 2006, our group has been using prediction markets and testing their utility in predicting the spread and impact of diseases, including seasonal influenza, syphilis, and others on a market called the Iowa Electronic Health Markets (IEhM), found at For example, in 2009, a series of markets were run on novel influenza A (H1N1), which showed success in predicting the extent and duration of the outbreak.1 We currently plan to move into a new phase of development that will allow the community of users to submit proposals for new prediction markets, which will then be approved by site editors and referees. We call the new system Samos.


This poster presents a software system to provide a community-driven, user-generated, low-overhead, web-based prediction market system called Samos.

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December, 2010

June 24, 2019

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